Meet NACM Oregon's Lobbyist Cindy Robert
2012 NACM Legislative Introduction and Position Brief
Oregon Congressional Delegation 1 UPDATE
One of five Oregon Congressional Districts - 2010 census did not add a district. Includes Clatsop, Columbia, Washington and Yamhill counties, part of Multnomah County and southwest Portland.
- 1893-1975 Held by Republicans
- 1975-2011 Held by Democrats (AuCoin, Furse, Wu last 12+ years)
- 2010 Election Wu 54% vs Cornilles 42%
November 8 Special Election Primary
- Turnout: 42% of registered Democrats, 44% of registered Republicans
- Bonamici (D) wins with 65% of Democrats voting for her
- Cornilles (R) wins with 75% of Republicans voting for him
January 31 Special Election General (winner will only serve a few months unless reelected in 2012 general)
- Registration advantage Democrats (election done under pre-redistricting lines).
- Registration: D-42, R-30, Other-2 (Secretary of State voter registration numbers, Sept. 2011)
- Partisan Voting Index: 8% advantage for Democrats
- Bonamici as advantage to win.
- Had to run campaign with primary opposition, so name is out there (Rob Cornilles-R had no real competition)
- Has fundraising lead (current $600,000 raised, Cornilles $505,000).
- Has district registration advantage.
May 15 Primary Election
- Election done with new district lines
- Changes: Oregon’s First gives up most of heavily Democratic downtown Portland, but still retains heavily Democratic Washington County and heavily Democratic Clatsop County. In exchange, the district gains the rest of the West Hills and keeps Northwest Portland and Columbia and Yamhill Counties. This results in an increase for Republicans, but only by about two to five points....low shift = D-40, R-32 ..high shift =D-37, R-35).
- Democrats likely to let the special election serve as their "primary election" and not contest Bonamici.
- Cornilles likely to run again if special election was close enough to show he is viable (According to ORP, Cornilles will run again no matter what outcome is of special election).
November 6 General Election
- Bonamici runs as "incumbent" but under new CD 1 district lines.
- May be another Bonamici vs. Cornilles election.